The 18 millionth bitcoin is soon to be mined, bringing the world's first cryptocurrency one step closer to its hard-coded limit of 21 million.
Alex Adelman, CEO of bitcoin rewards platform Lolli, remarked: "The pie is shrinking. Simple math shows where we are in bitcoin mining today."
"Seeing bitcoin’s progress—reflecting on what’s been achieved and the remaining 3 million left to mine—is valuable. But those last 3 million shouldn’t be underestimated."
However, rest assured: It will take another 120 years to mine all bitcoins.
With the block reward halving every 210,000 blocks (roughly every four years), the pace of mining the remaining 3 million bitcoins will slow, reducing new supply by 50%. The final bitcoin is expected in 2140.
The Challenges Ahead
As bitcoin approaches its supply cap, questions arise about its long-term viability:
- Miner Incentives: Once mining rewards end, miners will rely solely on transaction fees—a shift some fear could destabilize the network.
- Economic Utility: Bitcoin’s fixed supply may limit its use as a global reserve currency, especially during economic crises requiring monetary intervention.
Angela Walch, researcher at UCL’s Centre for Blockchain Technologies, cautions: "Don’t assume a pure fee system will function seamlessly. Governance changes could alter the 21 million cap if enough users agree."
Governance and Potential Changes
Though technically possible, altering bitcoin’s supply limit would face fierce resistance from users who prize its gold-like scarcity. Bitcoin’s code is community-governed, with upgrades rare and contentious (e.g., the 2017 block-size debate that spawned Bitcoin Cash).
Paul Brody of EY notes: "Bitcoin’s governance allows changes if the community agrees. But its hard limit is sacrosanct to many."
The Road to 21 Million
Andreas Antonopoulos, a bitcoin advocate, argues concerns are overblown: "The transition to fee-based rewards is gradual over 120 years. Miners adapt daily to variables like electricity costs, bitcoin prices, and equipment efficiency."
While the 18 millionth milestone is symbolic, the 2020 halving—reducing block rewards from 12.5 to 6.25 BTC—holds greater significance for bitcoin’s economics.
FAQs
1. Why does bitcoin have a 21 million cap?
The limit ensures scarcity, mirroring precious metals like gold. It’s enforced by halving block rewards periodically until 2140.
2. What happens when all bitcoins are mined?
Miners will earn only transaction fees. The network’s security will depend on fee revenue sustaining miner participation.
3. Could the 21 million cap change?
Technically yes, but politically unlikely. Bitcoin’s community strongly resists altering its core monetary policy.
👉 Learn more about bitcoin’s halving events
4. How does halving affect bitcoin’s price?
Historically, reduced supply post-halving has led to price surges, though past performance doesn’t guarantee future results.
👉 Explore bitcoin mining profitability
5. Will transaction fees replace mining rewards?
Yes, but the transition spans decades, allowing gradual adjustment. Fees must eventually cover mining costs to maintain security.
6. What’s the biggest threat to bitcoin’s scarcity?
A governance fork altering the supply cap—though such a move would likely splinter the community and devalue the fork.