Last week marked the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday, resulting in lighter trading volumes and overall market consolidation. As U.S. stocks approach historic highs, 2024 is poised to be one of the best-performing years in history, with five of the past six years delivering double-digit returns.
2024 Could Be Among the Best-Performing Years in Market History
Market breadth remains supportive, with healthy differentials between 52-week highs and lows. The upward trend continues intact, as evidenced by declining volatility (VIX) and a stabilizing bond market following the announcement of Scott Bessent as Treasury Secretary under Trump. The 10-year yield has dropped nearly 35 basis points from its October peak.
Technical Indicators for SPX Remain Strong
Beyond his perceived pro-crypto stance, Bessent—a fiscal hawk and advocate for an independent Federal Reserve—proposed a "3-3-3 Plan" to stabilize U.S. fixed-income markets:
- Reduce fiscal deficit to 3% of GDP
- Boost real GDP growth to 3%
- Increase daily energy production by 3 million barrels
While skeptical of his core views, journalists noted Bessent’s long-term bullishness on gold due to central bank accumulation. Could this spill over into Bitcoin, especially amid discussions about strategic reserve portfolios? The next four years promise intrigue.
Treasury Secretary’s Gold Outlook: Implications for BTC?
Traders face a busy week with the year’s final nonfarm payroll data. Despite emerging inflation concerns, markets still price in a 65% chance of rate cuts. However, robust economic conditions have tempered expectations for 2025–2027 cuts.
Employment data forecasts suggest:
- Nonfarm payrolls: Rebound to ~+160K
- Unemployment rate: Steady at ~4.3%
Weak PMI surveys and high-frequency data may result in lower-than-expected figures, but risk sentiment likely stays positive barring extreme outliers.
Will Inflation Return in 2025?
Cryptocurrency optimism persists, with Ripple seizing attention as XRP skyrocketed 73% amid speculation about lawsuit resolutions. This surge propelled XRP past USDT to become the third-largest crypto by market cap. Whale addresses aggressively accumulated XRP last month—now taking profits.
👉 XRP whales capitalize on rally momentum
BTC Dominates YTD Gains
Altcoins struggle to reclaim January highs despite BTC’s leadership. While L2 fees and protocol-transforming blockchains (e.g., Hyperliquid) dominate narratives, Ethereum shows signs of revival via ETF inflows—$330M last Friday alone. Could secondary majors follow?
ETH ETF Inflows Rise: A Harbinger of Recovery?
Stablecoin market cap has surpassed Terra-Luna-era peaks, signaling heightened mainstream participation. As new capital enters, 2025 growth could accelerate.
👉 Stablecoin growth hints at broader crypto adoption
FAQ
Why did XRP surge 73% recently?
Speculation about Ripple’s lawsuit resolution and whale accumulation drove demand.
What is the "3-3-3 Plan"?
Scott Bessent’s proposal to stabilize U.S. finances via deficit reduction, GDP growth, and energy production targets.
Are Bitcoin ETFs influencing ETH’s performance?
Yes—recent ETF inflows ($330M) suggest renewed institutional interest in Ethereum.
How do stablecoins indicate market health?
Higher market caps reflect increased mainstream participation, as they’re often entry points for fiat users.
What risks accompany crypto investments?
Extreme volatility means potential total loss of capital—assess risks carefully.
Author: Augustine Fan, CFA, Founding Partner at SOFA.org. Former Goldman Sachs trader and CIO of a Hong Kong family office. Expert in macro trading and crypto derivatives.
Disclaimer: Cryptocurrency investments carry high risk. Prices are volatile, and you may lose your entire investment. Evaluate risks prudently.